investing in global system changes.

We believe that a circular bioeconomy – a resource-efficient economic model that works in harmony with nature, rather than at its expense – will grow to replace today’s linear, wasteful, nature-degrading economy. 

The food and agriculture sector will sit at the heart of this transition. Farmers will restore soil health and biodiversity by shifting to regenerative practices – such as introducing crop diversity, planting shade and fertiliser trees, eliminating synthetic farming chemicals, and minimising tillage. Farmland and the ecosystems they sit within will become healthier and more productive even as the land is farmed, increasing their resilience to extreme weather such as floods and droughts, and reducing yield loss over time.

The transition to a nature-positive economic end-state will also impact manufacturing industries, which will move to circular models that rely on recycled materials, minimising waste and resource extraction. They will also turn to nature-based alternatives to many of the extracted materials we rely on today, such as plant-based plastics in place of plastic made from fossil fuels, and engineered wood in place of concrete and steel. 

Technological advances in monitoring and measuring nature impacts, including via satellites and digitally-connected sensors, will increase supply chain transparency, helping regulators, investors and consumers understand how each business impacts the ecosystems in which it operates. We believe that regulators and, increasingly, consumers, will come to expect circularity as standard, and will favour firms whose business models have a net-positive impact on nature. 

In our health system, we will move from ‘sick-care’ – where we treat symptoms after they have arisen – to personalised, preventative medicine. Advances in AI and data analysis will support real-time, unobtrusive monitoring of health factors such as blood pressure, heart rate and blood-sugar levels, raising warning flags at the earliest possible moment. Meanwhile, the plummeting cost of computing will enable widespread genetic screening for individual health risks and the preparation of personalised lifestyle and illness prevention plans, increasing ‘health-spans’ well into our later years.

Among myriad social changes, we anticipate greater internet connectivity will bring another one billion people on-line, democratising access to services and economic opportunity. Asset management and financial data will see strong growth as an expanding and increasingly active older generation puts more emphasis on private pensions. And across the board we will see a shift to personalisation, affordability and accessibility, as digital technologies enhance the consumer experience and expand access to those currently priced out of segments such as mobility and housing. 

Technology will also underpin the transition to a socially-constructive economy. Widespread digitalisation and AI-powered data analysis will unlock a new era of personalised products and services at a lower cost, giving consumers greater access and purchasing power. As lives shift ever-more online, however, expectations of digital privacy and online safety will become new societal needs, leading to new opportunities in the cybersecurity sector. 

The expansion of the digital sector will bring sustainability challenges of its own. Data centres, for example, require large amounts of energy and water – the same is true for semi-conductor manufacturing. We are convinced, however, that digital solutions will be a significant net-positive in driving the transition to a sustainable economy, and that all sectors will benefit as this highly innovative industry searches for solutions to its own climate- and nature-impacts.