US midterms and a narrower policy mandate
US midterms and a narrower policy mandate
Samy Chaar
Chief Economist and CIO Switzerland
Filippo Pallotti, PhD
Macro Strategist
key takeaways.
- The November 2026 US midterm elections are likely to deliver a divided government, with Democrats expected to take the House, and a Democratic Senate majority looking increasingly probable
- Midterm losses for the president's party are a feature of US politics rather than a historical anomaly. Trade and foreign policy will remain in the president’s hands, regardless of the election results
- A divided government will however create legislative gridlock, and leave core economic policy unchanged: fiscal policy would be effectively on 'autopilot', and become a mild headwind to growth over the coming quarters
- Investors should expect more political friction and some market volatility around the 3 November vote, but little change to the fundamental path of US policy and economic conditions.
The 2026 US midterm elections are likely to produce a divided government, limiting major legislative change while preserving some policy continuity.
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important information
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